Description

This analysis provides a forecast of AR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2026-01-11 2.703473 3.145793 3.635526 4.217689 4.890642 5.643914 6.550950
2026-01-18 2.005662 2.596196 3.319757 4.270316 5.485228 6.985190 8.977373
2026-01-25 1.549062 2.188906 3.040849 4.255424 5.940054 8.191883 11.429161
2026-02-01 1.176209 1.791063 2.669711 4.012317 6.007748 8.859456 13.241025
2026-02-08 0.941535 1.530350 2.425199 3.877458 6.168897 9.638118 15.282589
2026-02-15 0.790494 1.361834 2.279027 3.849383 6.462000 10.624313 17.747154
2026-02-22 0.706008 1.281853 2.253041 3.997807 7.041858 12.117736 21.204536
2026-03-01 0.608307 1.160110 2.134672 3.965891 7.305257 13.114395 23.957887
2026-03-08 0.523717 1.046017 2.009271 3.897003 7.484762 13.977488 26.578372
2026-03-15 0.462904 0.965536 1.930885 3.898678 7.785862 15.084287 29.771849
2026-03-22 0.445516 0.967045 2.006663 4.203679 8.699697 17.429794 35.588997
2026-03-29 0.408002 0.920728 1.980534 4.300224 9.212977 19.068309 40.235130
2026-04-05 0.370267 0.869922 1.942188 4.375837 9.715600 20.793168 45.381691
2026-04-12 0.331846 0.811465 1.879726 4.392921 10.103474 22.349059 50.426768
2026-04-19 0.295174 0.750556 1.802314 4.364805 10.388882 23.728932 55.294456
2026-04-26 0.248931 0.658217 1.638412 4.111428 10.125601 23.876575 57.448316
2026-05-03 0.216359 0.593919 1.530031 3.971925 10.105451 24.562813 60.924651
2026-05-10 0.194177 0.552430 1.470523 3.942707 10.346076 25.882080 66.074677
2026-05-17 0.183451 0.539753 1.481616 4.094476 11.059718 28.421759 74.537359
2026-05-24 0.165485 0.503636 1.425826 4.061747 11.294007 29.815818 80.325058
2026-05-31 0.148113 0.466013 1.359949 3.991212 11.417637 30.946902 85.593312
2026-06-07 0.135449 0.440041 1.322167 3.992920 11.737977 32.628326 92.542733
2026-06-14 0.134591 0.450190 1.389006 4.305117 12.972246 36.892967 107.047103